Aintree Grand National - who will win?
The Aintree Grand National is the most spectacular horse race in the UK horse racing calendar. Its romance and atmosphere lie both in its long history (this is the 160th time the race will have been run!) and also in the difficulty of the Aintree course and its fences, which means that just crossing the finishing line is an achievement for the horses involved.
With forty horses racing over the four-and-a-half mile steeplechase course, predicting a winner is notoriously difficult, so you should bet on the Grand National to enjoy the occasion to the full, but remember to play safe because it’s unlikely that this particular race will be your path to instant riches!
That said, I’ve had a lot of fun with the Grand National over the last few decades and picked up some decent winners along the way. Just in the last 10 years alone I’ve had Numbersixvalverde at 14/1 in 2006, Amberleigh House at 25/1 in 2004, Papillon at 33/1 in 2000 and Earth Summit at 9/1 in 1998, so the race has been rather kind to me, but the method I use to select my bets isn’t actually anything new.
All I do is look back on previous years’ statistics to find the perfect profile of the winner and then break the field down by removing the runners who don’t meet the conditions I’ve set. I’ll look at factors such as age, weight, rating, going, distance etc. and by the time it comes to finding the actual winner I’ll have removed the majority of the field for one reason or another. This normally only leaves me with 5 or 6 runners to consider.
I’ve just finished this for the 2007 Grand National and here are the runners I’ve been left with from the original 68 that are listed in the declarations:
Numbersixvalverde
Won the race rather easily last year and is in with a chance again, but he’s 11lb higher this year and previous Grand National winners rarely win again the following year (Red Rum was the last). On top of that the ground was dead last year and this year it’s likely to be good, so I think we should dismiss him for that fact alone.
Longshanks
I don’t know about Longshanks. He’s missed the cut for the race, when well-fancied, the last couple of years and here he is coming into it now at the age of 10. That’s not exactly a negative in itself, but something niggles me that he probably doesn’t have enough class to win a Grand National these days.
Point Barrow
Won the Irish Grand National last year, which is the best guide to the big race itself, but more importantly it also shows for sure that he stays the distance. I like this one best of the market leaders and with a clear round he’s got to go close to winning.
Clan Royal
Finished 2nd in 2004, was looking like the winner when carried out by a loose horse in 2005 and finished 3rd in 2006. Getting on in years now, but as they’ve not ran him for 109 days it’s guaranteed that he’s been layed out for this race again. He might just struggle to win as a 12yo, but at 50/1+ (on Betfair) he’s surely worth a few quid each-way. He’s got solid National form and the good ground will be perfect for him.
Silver Birch
This is another interesting outsider. He was starting to look like a decent animal in 2004, but was injured after that and is only just beginning to find his form again. I’ve got to admit that it’s hard to imagine him winning, but he’s also 50/1 and a little each-way wouldn’t hurt.
Bewleys Berry
I really like this horse. Take a look at his form for 2005/2006 and you’ll see what I mean - he was very highly tried and raced in some of the very best Novice Chases alongside the likes of Exotic Dancer and Star De Mohaison, which is top class form. The connections (who are no mugs) quite clearly hold him in high regard, so there’s every chance he could turn out to be a lot better than his current handicap mark of 139.
There’s a lot in Bewleys Berry’s favour…
He could easily be well-in at the weights, he’s bred to be a stayer and is proven over 3 miles plus, the stable are bang in form, this has been his target all season, he front runs which is perfect at Aintree, and he’s been steadily brought back into it this season with a couple of decent enough runs (one over these fences - hint!) before putting in a no-show on unsuitable heavy ground last time.
The one slight niggle I have about him is that he might be slightly inexperienced for the National course, but he’s a front-runner who should be able to stay out of trouble and with so many things in his favour I think the 31/1 that’s available on Betfair now seems on the generous side.
Of course, it’s all about opinion and I’m not suggesting that you mortgage your house and lump on anything based on what I’ve said here, but the method I use is based on sound principles and it’s served me well over the years, so it wouldn’t do any harm to take a good look at the runners I’ve mentioned.
For your information, this is how I would recommend staking them:
Point Barrow - 2 points to win at 11.5
Bewleys Berry - 2 points each-way at 32.0
Clan Royal - 1 point each-way at 55.0
Silver Birch - 1 point each-way at 50.0
I’ll be leaving Numbersixvalverde and Longshanks out of the equation (somewhat reluctantly) for the reasons stated above and concentrating on the 4 runners above with a total stake of 10 points.
The reason I’m spreading the bet across the 4 runners like this is simply because it gives me a fair bit of action on the race and at the same time, there’s a fair chance of at least covering the stake I’ve layed out. If any one of the each-way bets runs into a place the bet is largely covered and there’s still the opportunity to pick up a bumper payout if one of them happens to win.
However you decide to pick your selections and whatever you decide to back, I wish you luck. It’s sure to be an exciting race!
Technorati Tags: Aintree Grand National, Aintree, Grand National, Grand National Horse Race, Horse Racing, UK Horse Racing, Horse Racing UK, GB Horse Racing
Written by BettingBots on April 12th, 2007 with
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#1. April 14th, 2007, at 4:36 PM.
Well, what can you say to that? He was trading at 70.0 just before the off, so it was a nice little touch